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Strategists from almost all the top Wall Street banks have come out this week with a nervous message about the U.S. stock market.
The market seems currently extremely vulnerable. Valuations are at historical extremes, stocks have rallied non-stop for seven months, the economy looks soft and the Federal Reserve is preparing to taper stimulus.
“The risk that the correction is hard is growing,” wrote Deutsche Bank equity strategists including Binky Chadha. “Valuation corrections don’t always require market pullbacks, but they do constrain returns.”
Wall Street Braces for Stumble in U.S. Stocks on Relentless Tear
Some of the market strain is already showing up. The S&P 500 has fallen about 1% in the past three sessions, though U.S. futures were indicated higher on Friday morning. The index has soared 100% since the March 2020 lows.
We are going to have a period where data is going to be weak in September at the time when you have a heightened risk of delta variant and school reopening.” The bank cut U.S. equities to underweight and global stocks to equal-weight on Tuesday.
The S&P 500 has essentially turned into a 36-year, zero-coupon bond. If you look at the duration of the market today, it’s basically longer duration than it’s ever been. This is what scares people at the moment.
The threat is that any move higher in the cost of capital via interest rates, credit spreads, equity risk premia, that’s basically going to be a huge knock on the market relative to the sensitivity we’ve seen in the past.
What this will do with the crypto currency is still unclear. It is wise to keep an eye on the stock exchange